Week 5 NFL Bets

Coming off a great week of picks where we hit 9 of 14 against the spread. Let’s keep it going for Week 5 where there are some interesting matchups and, of course, the return of the great Tom Brady.

NFL Week 5 – Sunday 10/9/16

1:00 PM  New England Patriots -10.5 at Cleveland Browns

The logical play is probably to take the Browns who seems to be in every single game this year despite not having a win. But I do think there is something to the Brady return that gives blowout potential. I’m taking the Pats to win by a big number.

1:00 PM  Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Detroit Lions

I believe the Eagles are probably a deceiving 3-0 but I also think the Lions are that bad. Yet to lose by more than 7 which tempts me to take the points but I have to stick by my rule that if you like a team to win, you automatically take the small number. I think the Eagles win.

1:00 PM  Chicago Bears +4.5 at Indianapolis Colts

It’s hilarious that the Colts are getting this much respect in the line. There’s no way they should be favored by more than 3 against anyone. Chicago looked better last week and they can absolutely win outright, so we’ll take the 4.5.

1:00 PM  Tennessee Titans +3.5 at Miami Dolphins

I think the half point could come into play here. The Dolphins are another shaky team that doesn’t deserve to be favored by 3 against a Titans team that hangs around in games and have been solid on the road thus far. I think it ends up being within a field goal.

1:00 PM  Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings -7

Finally taking a home team here with this matchup because the Minnesota Vikings might be the most impressive team in football. Their stifling defense may be too much for a Texans team who I don’t think are well coached. The Vikings could shut them out ala the Pats did in Week 3.

1:00 PM  New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers -7

If this wasn’t in Pittsburgh I’d say these teams are more evenly matched than maybe the line reflects but there’s something about playing at Heinz Field that gives the Steelers such a home advantage. The Jets haven’t looked good the last few weeks playing quality teams and I don’t expect them to figure it out here.

1:00 PM  Washington Redskins +4 at Baltimore Ravens

Much like the Eagles, I wasn’t sold on the Ravens last week who were 3-0 after playing bad teams. They were tough against Oakland, who may just be good. But I don’t think they are more than 3 points better than Washington. Line is just a little too high for my liking and I think the Redskins might actually be the better team.

4:05 PM  Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos -4.5

The Falcons offense has looked scary efficient this year, putting some big numbers the last few weeks. This is a tough one for them though in Denver, always a tough place to play due to the altitude. They’ve yet to against a defense like this so I’m going to back the Broncos defense at home at a reasonable number.

4:25 PM  Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys +1

The Bengals looked much better with the return of Vontaze Burfict but I’m still not prepared to take them on the road against a quality team. I love the Prescott/Elliot duo. The Cowboys are going to have trouble stopping the Cincinnati offense but I believe ball control will be important and I think the Cowboys can run the ball and control time of possession to get the victory.

4:25 PM  San Diego Chargers +3.5 at Oakland Raiders

I can’t remember the last time I saw a team have more infuriating non-covers back to back. The Chargers should have won the last two weeks, choking away both victories, and somehow didn’t cover in the process.  That isn’t going to deter me though. You can always count on Rivers to have a lead late or to make a game close in garbage time. I like the Raiders but this could be a shootout so let’s take the spread.

4:25 PM  Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams -2

The Bills may be getting a little too much respect in this line after beating a depleted Patriots team that couldn’t throw the ball. It also wasn’t a great game plan by Belichick. On the road against a tough defense, I think they’ll falter. The Rams are a quality team and should handle this small number.

8:30 PM  New York Giants +6.5 at Green Bay Packers

I always love betting on Packers games because you can usually expect the line to be slightly inflated due to the team’s popularity. They are one of a handful of public teams. The Giants ran into a tough matchup on Monday night and should have an easier time against this Packers defense. Something just seems off with the Green Bay offense and I don’t feel they are in sync yet. Should be a closer game than the line reflects.



NFL Week 5 – Monday 10/10/16

8:30 PM  Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers  -4.5

It’s been tough to find a line for this matchup due to the Newton head injury. This clearly isn’t the Carolina team from last year but are ready to say they the bottom dwellers of the NFC South? That’s essentially what would happen if they lose this matchup. Winston is still prone to bad decisions and turnovers and in primetime on the road, I like the veteran defense to rise to the occasion. Panthers should cover a reasonable number.